So it turns out those “New York values” are pretty much in line with the rest of the country. Huge wins in the Empire State for front runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump meant significant pitfalls for their chief rivals. Ted Cruz’s dismal loss in this week’s primary means that mathematically he won’t be able to gain enough delegates before the convention to win the nomination, meaning a contested convention is now his only path to victory. And Bernie Sanders’ second place finish wasn’t his hoped-for outcome as it puts a decent dent in his momentum from last month. Mathematically Sanders has to win 60% of the remaining pledged delegates to overtake Clinton, and that’s not even counting the super delegates. And John Kasich is still in the race, something that not even good Will Hunting could mathematically justify. Kasich’s eternally optimistic idea that he could win a contested convention based on his November polling numbers is a misguided notion at best.
But the day didn’t go as smoothly as some might have hoped. Conspiracy enthusiasts and some Sanders fans were no doubt chalking up the acknowledged but inexplicable “numerous errors” of the NYC primary to Democratic Party favoritism: why else would entire buildings and streets of voters mysteriously vanish off the voting lists in Brooklyn? Chaos reigned as over 126,000 people found out that their names had been purged from voter rolls and were told to go home, leading to the kind of disappointment only seen when teenage fans learn that their favorite boy band is splitting up. Cue tears, tantrums and free stickers. In among all this commotion were reports of closed polling stations, broken voting machines and uninformed volunteers. You do the math.
By the end of the day, Trump had already used his decisive victory to add more fuel to the convention fire, saying that any attempt to deny him the nomination denies Republican voters their freedom to choose. This compelling argument falls apart mathematically thanks to the GOP winner-takes-all delegate rules, which makes the front runner look more popular than he actually is. While he took 60% of the New York vote, to date Trump has won less than 40% of the Republican vote overall, and he is the most unpopular presidential candidate in quite some time. But his continuing dominance of the news cycle and repeated posturing against the establishment continues to work in his favor. And while Clinton has not yet mathematically clinched the nomination, media coverage the following day about potential VP candidates on a Clinton ticket show that most commentators have already summed up the Democratic race as a foregone conclusion. Berned.
Trying to calculate the impact of a Trump presidency? It’s mathematically impossible. Movie for you mood: A Beautiful Mind